Sharigin M.V. Individual electricity consumers mathematical simulation principles for consequences assessment of their outage from electricity supply

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Abstract

The mostly used method for consequences assessment of consumers curtailment is the way of macromodeling which is connecting the consumers damage with the dead power magnitude and/or with the non-received electricity. This method is simple, but it has an important disadvantage: it doesn't allow to get appropriate assessments of damages at the factory level and lower. It is necessary to use the principles of aggregative simulation (which is the common approach) in such situations.

The cross functional principles of mathematical aggregative industrial energy consumers systems model production and determination for consequences assessment of consumers energy curtailment are set up in the article. The model allows to evaluate the consequences of consumers curtailment by all kinds of criterias taking into account stochastic behavior of information and to get required numerical characteristics of consequences assessments (mathematical expectations, probabilities, dispersions, confidential interval, risks).

Keywords

Electricity, customers, outage, consequences, model, assessment.

Sharigin Mikhail Valerievich – Ph.D.(Eng.), associate professor, Power Engineering and electricity supply" department, Nizhny Novgorod State Technical University n.a. R.E. Alekseev, Nizhny Novgorod, Russia. E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..

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